Tackling night time violence in and around McDonald’s in Leicester city centre
Based on the work of Temporary Chief Inspector Mark Brennan and Data Analyst Anne Reimers, Leicestershire Police
Serious violence prevention is a national priority, but deciding where to focus limited resources is the hard part. Leicestershire Police’s Prevention and Problem-Solving Hub used a funnelling approach to answer that question. It then tested whether the response actually worked.
Narrowing the problem
The team started with serious violence across the force area, then narrowed to public place violence, then to hot spots, then to licensed premises. Of the 18 violence hot spots identified in Leicestershire, 14 were in Central Leicester. Within those, 37% of violence happened between 10pm and 7am at weekends. A near repeat analysis found a 45.5% chance of another assault within 400 metres and 8 days of an initial incident.
A risky facilities analysis of 127 venues showed how concentrated the problem was. The top 10 premises accounted for 60% of offences, while 54% of premises recorded none. The top venue, a nightclub, was first prioritised, but focus groups and licensing checks showed its ranking reflected proactive incident reporting. It also held a safety award. The team moved on.
The next two highest ranked premises were McDonald’s restaurants, which together accounted for roughly one in ten serious violence offences in the city centre night time economy. In 2022/23 there were 115 serious violent crimes on weekend nights in the two hot spots. Using Home Office estimates, that is a cost of crime of about £1.6 million a year.
Understanding why
The team reviewed crime data and CCTV, held focus groups with night time economy staff and ran patch walks. Three themes emerged:
Most victims and offenders were intoxicated, and the restaurants were busiest at the end of nights out.
Most victims and offenders were men aged 20 to 24. Only 3% involved repeat victims, with no evidence of repeat offending. Violence often unfolded in groups of friends.
Customer management was chaotic at peak times, and 10% of victims in relevant offences were McDonald’s staff.
They also identified three pinch points: the cramped entrance and ordering area, the collection point where intoxicated customers missed their order numbers and tempers flared, and the pavement outside.
What they changed
Rather than relying on licensing enforcement, the Hub worked in partnership with McDonald’s. Staff knew the operation best, and most solutions had to be delivered by them.
Inside the restaurants:
a switch to a national security company, with the overnight manager briefing security and taking responsibility for the floor in a high visibility jacket and body worn video
large screen messages making clear that CCTV was in operation
Walk Away campaign materials, including QR codes on food bags
classical music overnight
Outside:
GPS tracked police foot patrols from July to December 2023, later absorbed into standard night time economy operations
extra presence from St John Ambulance and Leicester Street Pastors, with a “safe space” set up in April 2024
street lighting raised from 50% to 100% intensity on weekend nights
Some ideas were dropped. A third security guard was judged too expensive, extra CCTV signage was not supported by the local authority, and air conditioning made the restaurant too cold for staff.
What the data showed
The team compared the two restaurant hot spots with four control hot spots elsewhere in the city centre, across a baseline year (April 2022 to March 2023), an implementation year and a follow up year.
Implementation year: serious violence in the restaurant hot spots fell from 115 to 58 offences (50%). Against the control areas, that was a 38% reduction (inverted odds ratio 0.6169). The Weighted Displacement Difference result was -32 (p = 0.06), which is borderline. Crime harm (Cambridge
Crime Harm Index) fell 39% relative to controls.
Follow up year: offences rose to 73 but stayed 37% below the baseline. Relative to controls the reduction was 16%, which was not statistically significant. Harm was 25% lower relative to controls.
Displacement: a 50 metre buffer showed no sign of displacement, and possibly a diffusion of benefit.
Footfall: the team checked whether fewer people going out explained the drop. Business Improvement District data showed footfall rising, not falling.
Staff: focus groups reported improved feelings of safety, and staff turnover fell by 60% between January 2021 and December 2023, although other factors may have contributed.
The authors estimate the reductions equate to about £1.4 million in cost of crime avoided over two years.
How confident can we be?
In SEBP terms, this is promising, moderate evidence rather than proof. It is a comparison group design, which is stronger than a simple before and after. But the authors are open about its limits:
Control areas were close to treatment areas, so there may have been cross influence
Other policing activity, including the spread of hot spot patrols across the night time economy, may have affected both sets of areas
Numbers are small
The follow up year result was not statistically significant
The response had many parts, so we cannot say which ones mattered most
What others can take from this
Funnelling a broad problem down to specific places let a small team focus where improvement was most achievable.
Mapping pinch points, not just hot spots, pointed to practical fixes.
Treating the business as an equal partner secured delivery that enforcement might not have.
Keep checking implementation. Patch walks found periods when the music was not playing.
The team would have reviewed incidents weekly or monthly rather than quarterly, and gathered customer feedback.
According to the authors, the response is now largely partner led and embedded as standard practice. They also report that the Walk Away campaign was adopted nationally in late 2023 and that Leicester informed a Home Office collaboration with McDonald’s head office in 2025.
